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The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), especially generative AI, marks a profound change for the economy and the labor market. Artificial intelligence is therefore often compared to historical innovations such as the steam engine or electricity, as it has the potential to significantly increase our productivity. However, this potential is accompanied by both unprecedented opportunities and serious risks.
The labor market is currently facing an ambivalent situation: rising unemployment figures meet a shortage of skilled workers, which is being exacerbated by demographic change. The skills of jobseekers often do not match the skills companies are looking for. Demographic change is partially mitigating the effects of the poor economic situation on the labor market. Countries like Germany that are struggling demographically should particularly welcome AI as it is seen as part of the solution to the skills shortage.
In addition to demographic shifts, other macro trends influencing the global labor market through 2030 include technological changes in general, the transition to a more sustainable economy, economic uncertainty (especially global trade) and geo-economic fragmentation. Together, these factors are already leading to a transformation that is reshaping both jobs and the skills required.
There are fears that AI will lead to mass unemployment. An analysis shows that for every percentage point increase in automation potential in a sector, an average of around 15,000 jobs are at risk, particularly in the creative industries. According to studies, generative AI tools could destroy half of entry-level jobs in the next five years. Companies such as Microsoft and Shopify have cut jobs in the wake of AI integration, including highly skilled roles such as software developers and product managers.
Globally, 170 million new jobs are expected to be created by 2030, while 92 million existing jobs will be lost, resulting in a net increase of 78 million jobs. This represents a significant structural change. Although the number of jobs in AI-exposed occupations is growing, they are doing so at a slower rate than in less exposed occupations. Important jobs that are expected to grow strongly include AI and machine learning specialists, data analysts and scientists and big data specialists. At the same time, the importance of certain jobs is expected to decline, such as data entry clerks, cashiers and legal and secretarial staff.
AI is changing the world of work not only by shifting job profiles, but also by dramatically accelerating the skills required. In occupations that are highly exposed to AI, the skills sought by employers are changing 66% faster than in less exposed occupations. Employers expect 39% of employees' core skills to change by 2030.
The fastest growing skills are technological skills such as AI and big data, networks and cyber security as well as basic technological knowledge. However, human-centered and psychological skills are also becoming increasingly important. These include creative thinking, resilience, flexibility and agility, curiosity and lifelong learning, leadership skills and social influence. These skills are seen as crucial to succeed in an increasingly technology-driven world of work and to harness the power of AI to augment human work.
Another trend is the decreasing demand for formal educational qualifications, particularly in jobs that can be automated. This opens up new opportunities for career changers and emphasizes the importance of up-to-date, practical skills over traditional certificates.
The transformation poses considerable challenges, above all the skills gap. Many people underestimate the actual risk of job losses due to AI ("unrealistic optimism"). Ethical concerns regarding discrimination and copyright remain.
Targeted training and retraining programs are essential to meet these challenges. Companies are increasingly investing in the training of their employees. Public support in funding and providing these programs is seen as very helpful by employers. Political support through improved immigration laws and faster recognition of foreign professional qualifications is also crucial to addressing the skills shortage. In addition, there is considerable potential among migrant women and part-time women in Germany, whose untapped labor force could be leveraged through better childcare and tax incentives. Older workers who continue to work beyond retirement age also represent rapid potential if jobs are designed to be age-appropriate.
It is also important to consider the psychological aspect of tomorrow's working world. Core competencies such as creativity or resilience require an "inner economy" of the individual, which needs mental relief, self-awareness and emotional regulation. Companies must not only talk about skills, but also create the psychological conditions that make them possible.
The transformation brought about by AI is complex and multifaceted. AI alone will not solve the skills shortage. It is a powerful productivity driver that is fundamentally changing the world of work and both displacing jobs and creating new ones. The key to successfully navigating this change lies in the proactive adaptation of employees, companies and politicians. Investing in technological and human-psychological skills, flexible working models, improved immigration processes of qualified professionals and the creation of mental infrastructure in organizations are crucial to seize the opportunities of AI, minimize risks and shape a fair future of work for all. The future of work can be shaped, but it will not happen by itself and it will not be fair.
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